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This State’s Senators Are Changing the Democratic Party
New Republic 2 weeks ago

This State’s Senators Are Changing the Democratic Party

You can watch this episode of Right Now With Perry Bacon above or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. You can read a transcript here. Georgia voters shocked the nation by electing two Democratic U.S. senators during the 2020 election cycle. As senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have become two of the more high-profile members of the party. Warnock recently visited Minnesota in solidarity with protesters angry about the Trump administration’s mass deployment of federal law enforcement personnel and the killings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti. Ossoff blasted the “Epstein class” in a speech earlier this month, slamming the bipartisan elite with a memorable phrase that went viral and is now being used by other politicians and pundits. In the latest edition of Right Now, Tia Mitchell, the Washington bureau chief for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, explains Ossoff’s and Warnock’s successes, the complicated politics of Georgia, and the pair’s future prospects.

Transcript: This State’s Senators Are Changing the Democratic Party
New Republic 2 weeks ago

Transcript: This State’s Senators Are Changing the Democratic Party

This is a lightly edited transcript of the February 25 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: This is Perry Bacon. I am honored to be joined this morning by—a Louisville native, I should note first, because I am a Louisville native as well, and I am here in Louisville right now, actually—Louisville native Tia Mitchell. She is the Washington bureau chief of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. A great reporter, great friend as well. Tia, welcome.Tia Mitchell: Thank you so much for having me, Perry.Bacon: I want to talk today about—Georgia is in the news a lot because it’s a swing state now, which wasn’t the case for a long time. But also you have these two very interesting senators in Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, who both were elected in the 2020 cycle. Ossoff is up for election this year, Warnock will be up in 2028. I want to start with the news, which was like, Ossoff made this comment about this “Epstein class.” That made the news, and that was the first time I had heard that phrasing used.... Was that new to you? Talk about where that came from a little bit.Mitchell: I think Ossoff is very underrated as far as his oratory skills, because he has been less visible over this six-year term he has served. He has chosen to not be the person who is always in the hallways talking to reporters. He keeps his head down, keeps a lower profile. So I think people in Georgia were less surprised. Democrats in Georgia who follow him and go to his rallies and pay attention to what he says, were less surprised that he has a way with words. But I think it did take people outside who maybe have not paid as much attention to him by surprise. He is a great debater and a pretty good speaker, and so him coming up with this punchy phrase, the “Epstein class,” is par for the course for him, because he does a really good job—he had his own investigative journalism company before he became a senator. So he knows how to write, knows how to punch up the drama, and again, has a way with words. That being said, I did feel like his “Epstein class” line was pretty new. Again, it was for a rally, though. It was a speech; one of the kickoff events, if you will, for this campaign. This was a speech he put some time and effort into and wanted to make it stick with people. And he did with that phrase, among others.Bacon: Georgia politics is such where you have got to win some purple voters. You probably have to win some actual Republicans if you are Ossoff.... So “Epstein class” is a way of attacking both parties’ elites, right? Is that the campaign he’s running?Mitchell: Yeah, I think for “Epstein class” in particular, he was talking about MAGA Republicans, and the whole notion that President Trump has been quoted saying the release of the Epstein files would hurt people and that his friends could get hurt. Not necessarily saying “I’ll get hurt,” but “I know people who may be hurt if the Epstein files are released.” Tying Trump to the “class” of people who are in the Epstein files and resisted their release and are now—perhaps the perception that they’re trying to avoid accountability still by standing in the way of the full release, I think that’s what Ossoff was driving home. But to your bigger point, yes. For Ossoff to win in Georgia—for any Democrat or Republican, quite frankly, to win in Georgia—you’ve gotta get folks in the middle. Lately the pattern for success for people like Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock is crossover voters. Voters that don’t necessarily vote strictly one party line. There were Kemp–Warnock voters in 2022, for example.Bacon: Is he a populist?... He is not going to say defund the police, but is he more populist? Is that what we are thinking about now?Mitchell: I think that is a great way to describe Senator Ossoff. I’ll give you a good example. When Hamas attacked Israel, and of course Israel began to really decimate Gaza, Ossoff spoke out. He was critical of the destruction in Gaza, he was concerned about the humanitarian impact, and that angered some conservative Jewish leaders in Georgia, in metro Atlanta. Ossoff is Jewish, and some conservative Jewish leaders felt that it was somewhat of a betrayal that he would criticize the Israeli government. And even at that time, Ossoff was like, “It’s OK for some people to criticize me, because I know the people, the voters, agree with me. It’s not unpopular to say that the people of Gaza are dying, their neighborhoods are being destroyed, they’re being displaced and we’re concerned about that. That shouldn’t be controversial.” Even though there were fellow Jewish people who really leaned on him and were really upset with him.Bacon: It looks like Ossoff is going to do well. He is running for reelection this year. Talk about the race there. The Republican field is not quite settled. He got lucky because Kemp is popular, but Kemp is not running. So Ossoff is in a good position. He has fundraised well. Let’s talk about that race.Mitchell: Ossoff is definitely fundraising well. He has raised more than any other candidate on the ballot this year.Bacon: In Georgia, or anywhere?Mitchell: Anywhere in the nation. And the Republican field is somewhat in disarray. There are three leading Republicans. President Trump was just in Georgia last week. They want him to endorse. He has not endorsed. It seems more and more that he is perhaps going to choose not to endorse. All of them want his support. But without Trump’s endorsement, it’s remained this thing where all of them have celebrated their strengths and aligned themselves with Trump. And so you have—I would call the front-runner Congressman Mike Collins. He has raised more money than the other two. He polls in the lead, but of course, lots of undecided voters. Also, if you watch the State of the Union or listen to Donald Trump, the immigration crackdown, the Laken Riley Act, all of that is a big part of Trump’s agenda. Mike Collins was the lead sponsor of the Laken Riley Act. He is also a social media MAGA [person]. Some people consider it trolling. Some people consider it problematic. He considers it talking to the people.But that’s Mike Collins. So in a lot of ways, he has the brand. I personally think Mike Collins should be the candidate that Ossoff is most worried about. Not saying that Ossoff can’t win—he definitely can. Republicans believe he can. But I think Mike Collins is the one that would give Ossoff the most run for his money.We also have Congressman Buddy Carter. He has been working really hard to boost his MAGA bona fides. He is the one that introduced the Gulf of America Act and all these bills ... to curry favor with President Trump. And then the third one—and here is the wild card—Governor Kemp is supporting Derek Dooley. Derek Dooley has a famous last name, because his dad was a famous University of Georgia coach, Vince Dooley. Derek Dooley was also a football coach, but at rival SEC school Tennessee, and he also was nonpolitical for two decades. Didn’t vote, didn’t really donate to Donald Trump until recent years. For a lot of people, that was a curious choice for Governor Kemp. But Governor Kemp continues to say he thinks Derek Dooley is the type of candidate that Georgia voters will resonate with. But so far he is not really surging the way people who want to believe Governor Kemp want him to surge. Those are the three that are competing. It could go to a runoff, which also troubles Republicans, because that means they are going to be attacking one another until April while Ossoff just gets this long runway.Bacon: So I was on social media in late January and I saw Senator Warnock was in Minnesota, and he spoke the way he does, very slowly: “This is a moral moment.” You know how he sounds. He sounds very pastor-like, that’s how he is. So talk about what he was doing in Minnesota. Did that surprise you?Mitchell: No. And I just want to correct myself. The runoff would be in June, so May primary, June runoff. OK, Let’s switch to Warnock. Warnock for months has been on this mission to be this—first of all, he is a reverend. He has always said he is the “senator reverend.”He is never putting on one hat and taking off the other. At all times he is a reverend and at all times he is a senator. He has always taken that approach to serving in Congress. But I will say, since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has spoken more and more about feeling that he needs to help people navigate the darkness they feel during the Trump agenda. Even before the immigration crackdowns in Minnesota, he worried about the effect that Trump was having on particularly Democratic voters feeling very down. The layoffs, DOGE, the cuts in spending, the closure of various agencies in the federal government—he was concerned it was demoralizing people and leading to a darkness. So he’s been talking about that and encouraging people to find ways to resist losing hope.When the ICE crackdowns in Minnesota began to happen, he said that he felt led to go there to speak to the activists and encourage them to speak to the people, and again, be that moral leader, that religious leader, but also political leader to say, “We support you. We think what you’re doing is righteous. We know it’s not easy in these circumstances. How can we both pray with you but also try to advocate for you in Washington?” So that was a lot of what you heard from him when he went to Minnesota.Bacon: He’s ... a Black senator. Most African Americans do not like Trump, obviously, just by the data. He’s not the loudest, but what’s his posture day-to-day in D.C.? I don’t have a good sense of that.Mitchell: It’s interesting. He’s one of those people, he’s a little bit more—like my media colleagues say, “Ossoff never talks to us. He is invisible. He avoids us,” which isn’t the case; Ossoff is just very careful about who he talks to and why. Warnock is a little bit more accessible. He’s a little bit more willing to talk to the media, do national interviews and things like that. But I do think Warnock really wants to be perceived as someone who, when he talks, people listen. When he talks, it has impact. I remember his first floor speech was so highly anticipated that even Republicans went to the chamber to hear him deliver his first speech on the Senate floor.Bacon: He is also a very good speaker in a way.Mitchell: The benefit of being a Baptist preacher is that he is a very good speaker and communicates very well. Again, him and Ossoff are both very talented in that way, and I’m sure we’ll get to what those talents have led to. But yeah, I think that Warnock really [is] in the spirit of John Lewis and Martin Luther King. Martin Luther King was his hero. It’s why Warnock went to Morehouse. It’s one of the reasons why he’s a pastor, and now he is pastor of Martin Luther King’s church. John Lewis was a member of that church—Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. So for several years, Raphael Warnock was John Lewis’s pastor. He joined Congress shortly after John Lewis passed away. And he really talks about being in that legacy of someone who—again, John Lewis was considered the conscience of Congress when he served. And I really think—he wouldn’t say that—but if part of his legacy is when we talk about Raphael Warnock, we say he became the new conscience of Congress, I think that would make him proud.Bacon: So one of the commenters here has noted ... Ossoff voted for the Laken Riley Act. Warnock and Ossoff both voted for this crypto bill that deregulated a crypto site. Let me ask this more directly: They’re not the most progressive members in the Senate. Is that because … they’re sincerely moderate, or are they pretending to be moderate because it’s Georgia?Mitchell: So the Laken Riley Act was a special case for Georgia’s delegation because Laken Riley was from Georgia. She was killed in Georgia. There were several Georgia Democrats who, maybe if the case wasn’t so close to home, may not have supported it, but they did. Particularly with Ossoff and Warnock, they tend to provide each other cover on difficult votes.... Republicans still are using the Laken Riley Act to criticize Ossoff, even though he voted for it. So think about how damaging that would’ve been in Georgia if he had voted no, and then would’ve tried to go to the people of Georgia and say, “I need to speak to the center on such a high-profile, tragic case.” In that way, Warnock also said similar things. It helped that they were in tandem on this. Even in the House, Lucy McBath, who lost her own son to gun violence, she voted yes on the Laken Riley Act as well.The crypto thing, I have not talked to them specifically, but I personally, as a journalist who’s been watching that, think the crypto thing is about money. There’s a lot of political donations—Bacon: They will spend to defeat you if you vote against them.Mitchell: Or they’ll spend to help you. That being said, Ossoff does not take corporate dollars. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t take money from individuals tied to certain industries. I don’t know that for sure, I haven’t looked into it, but that’s my overall perception of crypto. I think it’s less about specific crypto policy at this point. But I think the crypto industry is trying to make friends, knowing that the conversations are happening, and members of Congress or people who want to be in Congress are willing to listen to those friends, because those friends have a lot of money.Those are just two examples. But to your bigger point, Perry and the commenter: They’re both pretty progressive, but neither one of them wants to be labeled an AOC progressive. Again, both of them were pretty critical of Israel when it came to concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. They have been very, very critical of the “one big, beautiful bill.” They voted repeatedly with most Senate Democrats to shut down the government by not approving the funding bills that didn’t have the extension of the health care subsidies. And now they’re voting to continue the partial shutdown because the Homeland Security funding bill doesn’t include money for reforming ICE enforcement. And even when a few Democrats caved to end the shutdown, Ossoff and Warnock were not part of that group and were not expected to be part of that group.Bacon: So I’ll close with this, which is probably what brought me to interview you in the first place. I’ve known Tia a long time, but we were talking internally about who might run in 2028, and then I brought up Ossoff, because I think he is charismatic and he’s youngish, and he had done some things where I was like, “Oh.” He went on Crooked Media and he had done something, maybe Colbert or somebody like that. He had done a couple of national things. So I was like, “Oh.” And then my colleague was like, “I think you’re talking about the wrong senator.” They were like, “Warnock, actually. If you want to build a Democratic coalition, start with Black voters, move to progressives. He’s a great speaker.” I don’t know if either one of them are thinking about it, but what’s your assessment? One, do you think one of them or both could go national, and two, do you think they want to go national? I’ve heard Warnock is maybe a little shyer than I think, but anyway, go ahead with both of them.Mitchell: So of course, both of them, when you ask, say, “I’m serving the people of Georgia.” Ossoff is saying, “I’m here to defeat the Republicans and get elected to another term.” That was the same thing Warnock said two years ago. But both of them have a national profile and I think both of them are in the conversation, the speculation about 2028. And quite frankly, both of them are open to hearing people out, and if either one of them believes he has a pathway, then I think they would test it out privately and possibly publicly. Again, this is just my speculation.Here’s ... the difference between the two. Warnock to me is someone who, again, his chosen career path was preacher, and politics is something he found himself falling into or being led into because of his activism as a Black pastor in the liberation theology vein of Martin Luther King and John Lewis and other Black males who … politics and the church have always been very closely aligned in the Black community. That led him to be an activist and eventually led him to joining the Senate. Will that lead him to running for president? I think he’s open to whether that’s a pathway, but I don’t necessarily think it’s on his long-term, written-out goals that “I’m going to run for president.” I think he has to see it. I think he’s going to have to be convinced. He wants to hear from people, and if he feels that the people need him and want him, he might be open to testing it out. That’s Warnock.Ossoff … I think there’s a piece of paper from 16-year-old Jon Ossoff that says, “I’m going to run for president.” I just think he’s one of those … highly motivated young people that said, “I’m going to be president one day.” And it would be easier for Ossoff to test the waters, because he’s not on the ballot in 2028. So he wouldn’t necessarily have to choose; he can test the waters and still run for Senate, quite frankly, and still be a senator, not have to resign his seat.Bacon: You’re saying Warnock’s term being up in 2028 means he can’t really—Mitchell: He can’t do both.… At some point he would have to make a decision, which one is he doing. Whereas Ossoff would not have to make that decision because his term is not up in 2028. I do think that Warnock’s name comes up in the conversation more right now, but Ossoff is the one that’s going to get all the attention later this year when he is one of the high-profile Senate races on the ballot.Perry Bacon: And if he wins, he’ll have won a hard swing state.Mitchell: And people are going to be paying attention. His rallies, they’re going to start being taken live on national TV, and he’s going to be doing more national interviews. There’s going to be more national coverage of his race as it heats up. We know how the media is in November 2026. There are going to be certain races that really draw national attention, and his is going to be one of them. And Georgia in and of itself is going to draw a lot of attention because of all the races on the ballot in a swing state. So his star is going to rise, and if he wins, he definitely will be part of the conversation.Bacon: What I’m hearing from you is … I’m an opinion person, so I can say what I want to say. If I want Warnock, I need to write a piece saying ... we have to draft Raphael Warnock in. But Ossoff is not going to need a lot of hints.Mitchell: I think Warnock would definitely have to be drafted. I think Ossoff has to see it as part of his trajectory. And I think for Ossoff, he is very deliberate. I don’t say this in a bad way, but he is someone who is methodical. He thinks through every word he says. He thinks through every interview he grants. He’s just one of those people. As young as he is—and he is affable ... very young, but very calculated, old spirit. Very cautious. He has two girls. The internet has never seen a picture of either one of his children, and I think that’s just an example of how careful and cautious he is with everything. The internet didn’t even know his wife was pregnant for the first child until the child was born. So that shows that he is very careful and deliberate. I think he has to see it. But if he’s successful in November, I think a lot of people will see it for him.Bacon: Jon Ossoff is 39. I just checked. Good for him to be a U.S. senator at 39. Tia, this was great. Thanks for joining me. I appreciate it.Mitchell: Thank you so much for having me, Perry.Bacon: Good to see you. Bye-bye.

Restoring Trust in Media | Semafor Events
2:18:08
Semafor Podcasts 2 weeks ago

Restoring Trust in Media | Semafor Events

First Draft: 🤦🏻‍♂️ The New... DOGE?
Zeteo 2 weeks ago

First Draft: 🤦🏻‍♂️ The New... DOGE?

JD Vance ridiculously suggests no one’s ever looked for government fraud before, as if DOGE never happened. Plus, a Trump official pinky-promises the president won’t send ICE to the polls.

Transcript: Trump Racist Tirade at Dems Bursts MAGA Post-Speech Bubble
New Republic 2 weeks ago

Transcript: Trump Racist Tirade at Dems Bursts MAGA Post-Speech Bubble

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the February 25 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent. Sargent: During his State of the Union address, Donald Trump put on a big show of being focused on the middle of the country. He worked really hard to not seem too crazy, avoided some of the hot-button issues that he usually traffics in, and his appeals to the base seemed a bit less overt than usual. But then on Wednesday, he exploded in a wild racist tirade at two non-white members of Congress. And we think this tension captures the essence of this moment. In some deep sense, Trump and certain of his advisers simply cannot wean themselves off the race war and off the vile demonization of immigrants. And in fact, some Republicans are admitting that the speech didn’t move the needle enough to help in the midterms. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg had a mixed reaction to the speech. He’s optimistic about what’s ahead, but he also thinks there are things to worry about. Simon, good to have you on.Rosenberg: Always great to be with you, Greg.Sargent: So Simon, in a nutshell, what was your overall reaction to what you heard on Tuesday night from Trump?Rosenberg: I mean, strong theatrics. It felt like it was a last hurrah in some ways—that he was just enjoying himself being on stage. But there was no significant course correction, no significant change in direction that’s going to alter the struggle that he has. It may have felt good for him, and he may have reconnected with some of the voters that he was struggling with, but I don’t think it did what he needed to do to reset what is a period of struggle with him politically.Sargent: I agree. I think he probably did reconnect with some voters. I want to quickly sum up Trump’s speech. He angrily attacked Democrats for raising issues of affordability. He insisted that he’s engineered a miraculous resuscitation of the American economy, calling it a turnaround for the ages. He claimed he’s completely conquered inflation. He claimed he secured $18 trillion in investments in the country. He called Democrats crazy and cast them aside with immigrant criminals against American citizens. Simon, a lot of this is complete bullshit. There was no historic turnaround. Growth under Trump has been very low. Inflation and crime were falling when he took office. The trillions in investments are mostly phantom. Some inflation metrics, meanwhile, are going the wrong way. Still, though, he managed to seem like he’s concerned about the economy in certain respects. What did you think of what he said about the economy?Rosenberg: You touched on it in your remarks, which is that it’s just so crazy that he’s so unconcerned with truth. He is desperate to stay within this world that he’s constructed that you once called Foxlandia—this sort of imaginary world where he’s young and virile and the economy’s booming and everybody in the world loves him. Because he had a choice. If things are not going well, you can course correct. He could have accepted [getting] rid of the tariffs. He could have produced a health care bill that actually made people’s lives better. The Trump team has made a decision that they’re not going to course correct, that they’re doubling down. They believe—and I think part of what’s driving this is that they believe—that they’re just going to be able to spend a lot of money and flood the zone with false stories. And that people are dumb and will be confused and that they’ll just overwhelm it with a billion dollars of paid advertising. And then everything’s going to be fine. Because what’s your theory of the case when you are where Trump is right now? Either you have to believe that you can basically bullshit your way through the electorate, or you course correct. And they haven’t course corrected. There’s no evidence of course correcting. And so it means that they’re doubling down on a politics the country has wildly rejected. And there’s enormous risk to it politically for him.Sargent: So Trump exploded on Truth Social over Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, who pointed out that American citizens were killed by his paramilitary forces, which actually happened. I’m going to read from his tirade: “When you watch Low IQ Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, as they screamed uncontrollably last night at the very elegant State of the Union, such an important and beautiful event, they had the bulging, bloodshot eyes of crazy people.”Trump called them “lunatics” and “mentally deranged” and “sick,” then said, “We should send them back from where they came as fast as possible.” And there was a bit more of that. Then Trump concluded: “The good news is that America is now bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before. And it’s driving them absolutely crazy.” Simon, that’s some pretty bifurcated stuff. On the one hand, he’s trying to talk about the economy and appear somewhat like a statesman. But then when he gets into his room and he’s by himself, all of a sudden he erupts into all this crazy talk. What do you make of that?Rosenberg: I mean, it’s consistent with what we’re describing. Which is that he knows his powers are ebbing. He knows he’s become wildly unpopular. He knows that he’s struggling to maintain his coalition. He’s just suffered huge defeats in the Supreme Court, in Congress, from his own people. He’s been repudiated and rebuked by his own party now, repeatedly. And so part of what they’re doing is just doing the thing that they believe is what makes him strong and powerful—the foundation of his brand, which in 2024 was about lowering prices and making people’s lives better, and then immigration. The failure of his immigration policy has got to be creating enormous confusion internally in the White House, because I don’t think they ever imagined that something like this could happen. I don’t think they even really believe it is happening. I mean, they still have a huge swarm of people in Minnesota and they haven’t really accepted that there’s been a complete repudiation, not only of the escalating power of ICE, but of the mass deportation agenda too.Sargent: I think you probably agree that in some ways, in pure theatrical terms, Trump did make some good political moves in the speech. The patriotic gestures, even though I think they’re completely hollow—Rosenberg: They were powerful.Sargent: Yes. They probably made a good impression on people. The theater with some of the guests was probably successful. And he did talk a lot about the economy, and though most of it was bullshit, he remained focused on it for a good stretch. I’m sure the smartest advisers around Trump are pretty happy about that. So candidly, Simon, I know this is something you think about: Republicans are going to have a shit-ton of money. This speech is clearly the beginning of an effort to rehabilitate Trump. So as a Dem strategist looking at these midterms coming up, what do Dems have to be wary of, both in what we saw in the speech and going forward?Rosenberg: Listen, we have to recognize this is an atypical midterm. Every election is unique, but this one is going to be very different because, first of all, there has never been a presidential-level super PAC operating outside the House and Senate races. And so what Trump is going to have—and this money he’s raising is largely through the corrupt deals that he’s cutting, or people are tithing into his super PAC in order to get a pardon or whatever else—he’s going to have a half a billion, a billion dollars. And the thing is, what Democrats have to realize is that in early 2023—Trump was at minus 21 job approval in January of 2023. That’s two or three points lower than where he is now. And so he was in worse shape in January 2023. And after a two-year-long rehabilitation campaign where they tried to repair his broken brand, he was able to get his job approval back to minus seven. They increased it by 14 points and made the election competitive. The people that orchestrated that effort, Tony Fabrizio and Chris LaCivita, are running his super PAC again. It’s the same people that we were up against in 2024 who beat us in a head-to-head election. I think part of the reason that they’ve decided to grind it out as opposed to course correct is that they have this belief that they took us head on in 2024 and beat us. And they’re going to do it again in 2026. And I think that we don’t have an analogous institution to counter this. In 2024, we had super PACs and the presidential campaign, and we were spending on reasonably equal terms to them. And we still lost. We’re not going to have this countervailing institution to combat the half a billion to a billion dollars of ads—AI slop, and all the other Russian disinformation, and all the stuff that’s going to be flooding the zone—because this was really the kickoff of the campaign last night. We have to be a little bit worried about them outmatching us financially and also in terms of desperation. I mean, Mike Johnson said something in the last 24 hours that is the thing that we all have to recognize. He said, if the Democrats flip the House, Trump’s presidency is over. So what that means is that Donald Trump and his allies, including the Russian government, are going to do whatever it takes to stay in power.Sargent: What I hear you saying is that Democrats cannot get too confident about the hole that Trump is in. You’re not just saying that it’s money, although money is a big part of it. You’re also saying that on some level you have to be aware of the possibility that they actually can rehabilitate his image in time for the midterms. Is that what you’re saying?Rosenberg: Yes ... because they already did it. It already happened. I think that’s the critical thing: he was in worse shape in the 2024 cycle and they were able to rehabilitate him. And we were ineffective in 2024 at preventing his rehabilitation. Sargent: Actual political rehabilitation for Trump is something that Democrats have to worry about? Rosenberg: Yes, because it happened before. And I don’t think we’ve really been honest with ourselves to some degree about what happened in 2024 and the failure of our political apparatus to prevent his rehabilitation. I think this is something that’s in the after-action report that the DNC has produced. I hope that some version of the after-action report gets released, because it would be informative and helpful for those of us who are working in the 2026 election to understand why it was that we failed to prevent him from being rehabilitated in 2024.Sargent: I couldn’t agree more. I really wish the DNC would release that thing. So let me now point out that there seems to be a bit of a division among Republicans. A bunch of them are kind of crowing about this thing, saying it’s the start of this new rehabilitation process, which again, I think we need to be sensitive to the possibility of. But on the other hand, some Republicans are admitting that the speech didn’t move the needle for the midterms. I’m going to read some examples. GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett told Politico that Trump projected patriotism, but he adds this: “In terms of a political speech, there was no policy prescription that will guide Republicans towards safer ground in the midterms.” Another Republican operative told Politico anonymously, “It’s all look behind, as great as it all is. I wish we had more detailed steps to take directing Congress to do more for people who are hurting.” And Curt Mills of The American Conservative tells The Independent that Trump has much more to do to sell his economic agenda, adding, “I don’t think this was much of a game changer.” So there you have it. You’ve got the Susie Wiles types of the world, the super PAC people, the hard-boiled operatives around Trump who aren’t ideologues, who really think that they can pull this off and rehabilitate him. But you’ve also got these other Republicans who are serious players as well, who just don’t think that speech did it.Rosenberg: Right, because ... the key here is the tariffs. Donald Trump had an off-ramp on the tariffs and he didn’t take it, and he doubled down. This is what I was saying about the lack of course correction. I still am a little bit shocked about what he’s done, because he just disregarded the clear intent of what the Supreme Court was doing. He manufactured this other fake ability to sort of put in this temporary set of tariffs. He also, by the way, forced the Republicans in the House—because what happened, people don’t realize this, but a few weeks ago, the House took up the tariffs, the Canadian tariffs ... and almost every incumbent Republican in a battleground district voted to keep the tariffs, meaning that he’s forced his party to take votes to raise prices on people when it’s the most important issue in the election. This also happened in the Senate. And I think that part of the frustration you’re probably hearing from many of those folks on the right is that they had an off-ramp. He had a clear kind of path here to get out of the unbelievable economic and political hole that he’s dug himself into, and he didn’t take it. And what he’s doing now is recommitting the Republican Party to higher prices, to brazen illegality, to dictatorial, mad-king behavior where he ignores Congress and the courts, which is very unpopular, and he’s recommitting to a slower economy. And so why would you do that? That’s part of the thing that I think there’s a lot of frustration about on the Republican side, which is: why are you so hung up on these tariffs? These are obviously a political and economic disaster. What are you doing?Sargent: Yes, I think you’re absolutely right that one of the things that Republicans are really saying when they criticize the speech is that, damn it, you’re still stuck with these tariffs. Do you think Trump’s most consequential comments might have been about those tariffs? So let’s listen to him for a second from the speech on this.Donald Trump (voiceover): I believe the tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love.Sargent: So that’s incredible stuff, because Trump is still deceiving people about who pays the damn things. They tax consumers. He treats the tariffs as if we don’t pay them, but it’s a regressive tax that working people pay. And he even says that this will do away with the income tax. I guess he means this will do away with taxes on rich people, which, let’s recall, he’s already cut, and he’s using the tariffs to pay for that. Your thoughts on that part?Rosenberg: Listen, I’m going to paraphrase a commentator that I admire and respect, Greg Sargent, who wrote the other day about Trump doubling down on how the core pillars of his ethno-nationalism were crumbling—which are the tariffs, his mass deportations, and the terror regime towards immigrants. And the reason this is so important is that if you pick apart Trumpism or try to distill it down, it’s really two things. It’s more money for him—and the tariffs are a way of him having more money because it’s tax cuts, money to the hoop for him. He’s pushing the tax burden of the United States towards middle-class people and regular working people. And then he’s doubling down on ICE and the terror regime. And they’re not walking away from any of that. And they’re not even negotiating with the Democrats. There’s no negotiation going on in these DHS negotiations. He cannot walk away from those two things.Sargent: So let’s listen to what CNN’s Harry Enten said about CNN’s snap poll of the speech.Enten (voiceover): But if you look at our post-poll right after the State of the Union, I simply don’t see it for him. Why do I say that? View of Trump’s speech to Congress, “very positive,” among speech viewers—who are more Republican than the electorate overall—this was actually the least well-received speech. We’re talking about 38 percent of speech viewers who viewed the speech “very positive.” And that is lower than in 2025, when it was 44 percent; lower than in 2019, when it was 59 percent; lower than in 2018, when it was 48 percent; and lower than it was in 2017, when it was 57 percent. The bottom line is this: State of the Union addresses, simply put, do not, traditionally speaking, move the American electorate. And this Trump speech, especially so, is not likely to move things, because simply put, it was the least well-received one among speech viewers of any of the speeches that Donald John Trump has given to a joint session of Congress.Sargent: So Simon, that was quite a shock to me, because I think in some ways Trump was more sedate in this speech than he was in past ones. And yet this one seems to poll worse than any of his other performances. I guess what that tells us is that he’s very deeply damaged and this has been a very bad year for him.Rosenberg: Yeah, he is deeply damaged outside of his core MAGA base. And this was a confirmation of that. Navigator did work called dial groups, which is, as people watch the speech, they push the dial up if they’re happy and down if they’re unhappy. Parts of the speech that did the worst were when he talked about how good the economy was.Sargent: Well, just to close out, I want to return to something you said earlier and return to that epic rant that Trump unleashed about the two congresswomen, because I think that this really captures the essence of it. As you pointed out, at bottom, Trump is really sticking with the two pillars of Trumpism: the tariffs, which are supposed to rejuvenate manufacturing and cause a manufacturing renaissance, but are failing miserably; and the mass deportations, which are supposed to ethnically purify the country, but are also creating an epic disaster for them. And no matter how they try to gussy this all up, the bottom line is—as you got at—that Trump is not moving away from those two big things. He’s not moving away from the right-wing nationalism, the Trumpism, that whole set of ideologies. That’s the problem that they’ve got right now. Rosenberg: They had a decision to make going into this speech: whether they course corrected and actually did things that would be good for the American people, because the things they’re doing are harming us; or whether they were going to choose the route of bullshitting their way through, cheating in the elections, asking the Russians to come in and do whatever they’re going to do. And they chose the second path. And that’s the decision they’ve made for now. I don’t think, as you heard, the Republican candidates and those that want to win elections in 2026 who are down-ballot are going to be happy with that decision. I think they would have preferred the course correction and to actually have done things that they can run on that are going to help make [people’s] lives better. And Trump didn’t give them that last night. So I think we’re in this place where we have to anticipate that his desperation grows, his willingness to do extraordinary and dangerous things—like invading Iran with no real plan—because he knows that unless something fundamentally changes, we’re going to win the election, he’s going to get subpoenaed up the wazoo, and as Mike Johnson said, fundamentally his presidency is over. And they’re just going to do whatever they possibly can to prevent that from happening.Sargent: Well, Simon Rosenberg, I tend to agree that Democrats look like they’re in a strong position, but as you also pointed out, Trump has been in worse shape before and he’s surrounded by people who have won elections before. Always great to talk to you, man. I guess this is going to get really interesting this year.Rosenberg: Yeah, it’s good. Listen—I want to just conclude by saying people should feel good about what’s happened. We’ve been successful politically and electorally, but we still have a lot of work ahead of us and this thing is not cooked and we’ve got to work as hard as we can.

Holy Horny Hypocrites
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I've Had It Podcast 2 weeks ago

Holy Horny Hypocrites