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The Dangerous Incoherence of Trumpâs War With Iran
Now what? Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who has led Iran as its supreme leader since 1989, is dead, killed in an Israeli airstrike on Saturday. Israeli and American bombs are still raining down across Iran as part of Operation Epic Furyâa name that doesnât lend confidence to the notion this administration has good things in mind for the Iranian people. Some are, like the bombs that killed Khamenei, intended to assassinate top Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. Others are aimed at decimating the countryâs military. Still others are falling indiscriminatelyâlike the one that fell on a girlsâ school in Minab, killing dozens of children. In an eight-minute video posted on his bespoke social media network Truth Social, President Trump insisted that the war had two related goals: to keep the American people safe and to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. âOur objective,â Trump said, âis to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.â This is all quite preposterous. Iran poses no imminent threat to the American people. And just five days ago, Trump boasted in the State of the Union address that he had âobliteratedâ Iranâs nuclear program last June when American and Israeli fighter jets bombed several compounds. Make no mistake, this is an illegal regime-change war. The implications of Trumpâs desperate decision-making may be felt for decades. It is the invasion of Iraq redux, but without even an attempt to cloak itself in legitimacy. There was no congressional address, no attempt to persuade the public, certainly no visit to the United Nationsâjust three minutes in the State of the Union devoted to a war that may portend that next great American foreign policy catastrophe in the wider Middle East, and the United States too. The ayatollah is dead, and bombs are still falling. Now what? No one in the Trump administration really seems to know. Certainly not Trumpâbut not Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, either. Vice President JD Vance, who rose to prominence in part by casting himself as an anti-interventionist and arch isolationist, has cheerled the war and insisted it has âno chanceâ of becoming the kind of forever war he used to rail against. The administration wants regime change in Iran, that much is certain. But how will it get there? Itâs still not clear. This is a problem not limited to Iranâthough the potential for disaster and chaos is perhaps greater here than it is anywhere else. This administration loves to take cataclysmic action; to make dramatic moves that cannot be undone. But itâs hardly ever clear what it wants to achieve. In Iran, the destruction and general illegality is the point: This administration wants to drop a shitload of bombs, to kill a foreign leader, to destabilize a foreign nation, if not an entire region, simply because it canâand because no one can stop it. Thereâs no evidence that anyone has thought through what comes next, probably because itâs all bad news from here. This is what Trumpâs backers recently termed the âDonroe doctrineââa moniker he adopted after U.S. Special Forces kidnapped Venezuelan President NicĂłlas Maduro last month. Itâs a foreign policy of reckless action and spectacular violenceâand no clear strategic objectives beyond creating content for social media. Now what? No one in the Trump administration is asking that question because strategic considerations and the long-term security of the U.S. are for losers, weaklings, and pencil pushers. Killing leaders, bombing schools, thwarting domestic and international lawâthatâs the goal. Operation Epic Furyâhas there ever been a dumber name for something so horrific? Has there ever been a more fitting one? âEpic Furyâ suits an administration devoted to cheap jabs that âown the libs,â livestreams of Cabinet members awkwardly attempting pull-ups, AI videos of our obese and sundowning president flying fighter jets or posing with glistening muscles and ripped abs. âEpicâ once meant sweeping, gloriousâit was Lawrence of Arabia or The Ten Commandments. Now itâs just another piece of pandering slopspeak, the kind of thing that spews out of Elon Muskâs mouth as he boasts about his fascistic, child pornâgenerating AI chatbot. Still, this operation is, I suppose, epicâthe largest air assault since the start of the Iraq War. It is furious too, though that fury itself raises a question this administration has not been able to answer because it cannot be provided: Why are we going to war in Iran? One explanation is simply that the president and his Cabinet are gripped with inchoate fury and rage, as are many of their supporters, and they are desperate to find outlets for release. They have vented their violent impulses in Venezuela, and in Minneapolis, and in the federal government itself, all of which have been decimated as part of the administrationâs larger pursuit of destruction. Trump and his backers are obsessed with power and strength and are desperate to showcase that they and the country they ostensibly lead are powerful and strong and that no oneânot their political opponents or critics; not the âinternational community,â to the extent that it exists at all; not Congress or the Constitutionâcan do anything to stop them. In practice, this usually means terrorizing immigrant communities or weaker nations. It means kidnapping Maduro and threatening to invade Greenland and dispatching thousands of armed federal agents to snatch up law-abiding immigrants who came to this country for a better life and now risk being disappeared or held in detention for months or dropped outside in the cold and left to die. âOne suspects,â wrote Marc Lynch in a typically astute post, âthat acting in defiance of international law, expert opinion, and the role of Congress is its own reward for this team.â Some strategic goalsâIsraelâs, for instanceâare easier to understand. Israel wants chaos, if not outright civil war: It wants Iran to become a failed state and hopes murdering Khamenei will help bring that about. It is safe to say that the United Statesâand the Arab states it counts as its alliesâdoes not want that. While Trumpâs bellicose and incoherent foreign policy often risks chaos and catastrophe, the administration itself has shown little appetite for true uncertainty. These guys arenât at all adept with tying up loose ends. Venezuela, which has been led by Maduroâs Vice President Delcy RodrĂguez since his kidnapping, is helpful to think about here: It suggests that the administration is not just suspicious of full-scale regime change but largely fine with a degree of continuityâso long as the new leaders do what the U.S. wants, as RodrĂguez has, despite being a fully committed Chavista and no oneâs idea of a democratic reformer. In the case of Iran, that would most likely mean the countryâs militaryâthe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsâtaking power, something the CIA has floated as a potential outcome. If that would possibly be acceptable for the Trump administration, it is almost certainly a nonstarter for Israel. And thatâs basically the big problem and unanswered question underlying Operation Epic Fury: What happens when Israeli and American objectives diverge? And what about his promise to Iranians that they will be allowed to âtake backâ their country? There is simply no chance that will be allowed to happen.The short answer, at this point, is that no one knows what tomorrow holds. That is alarming for a number of reasons. Itâs terrifying for the Iranian people, who are now caught in a military operation with no clear strategic objective, which means that it has no clear end pointâthe death and destruction may very well be only just beginning. For the wider Middle East, that uncertainty suggests that a regional war or a sectarian one on par with the Iraq War is still very much in the cards. And for the United States itâs terrifying too because itâs not at all clear that the administration can simply stop when it decides to. Israel is intent on pushing Iran into chaos, and it needs Americaâs help to do it. So far, Trump has been a willing partner. He may very well intend to call a halt to the operation when he decides itâs gone far enough. But the fact that none of this has been thought through in advance means there are a host of tail risks involved: This conflict can very easily drag on; the U.S. could quickly find itself with thousands of ground troops in Iran; this could all end with Iran becoming a failed state. In the meantime, Trump burbles on as if long-term implications are woke. âI can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: âSee you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear and missile programs],ââ he told Axiosâs Barak Ravid on Saturday, in an interview where he insisted he had severalâunstatedâpotential âoff-ramps.â Israel, meanwhile, has floated a different timetableâone not of days or years but âweeks.â Three days. Three weeks. Three years. More? How long will this continue? Trump, as always, is convinced that he decides when things start and when things end. When the time comes, he will declare victory based on a set of criteria that he will invent for the sole purpose of crediting himself with yet another glorious âwin.â He will say that the U.S. has eliminated a maniacal and evil foe and freed the Iranian people from his clutches. He will claim that he has ushered in a new era of peace and prosperity, both in Iran and in the wider Middle East. He will be lying, and this will be incorrect.The only thing we know for sure is that Trump is completely untroubled by the fact that he has launched a massive military operation without a clear purpose or goal. He, moreover, is fully convinced that he is in complete control of these unfolding events. He is lying to himself. Neither he nor, it seems, anyone in this administration is cognizant of the fact that this war could very easily careen out of controlâdespite so many of them being sold to the public as the only administration that knew better than to stumble into forever wars. So we will keep bombing Iran until such time as Trump infers from whatever vibes heâs feeling that heâs âwon.â But there are many other forcesâIsrael, the Gulf states, the IRGC, and the Iranian people themselvesâthat have much clearer ideas what they want, and they are all in tension with one another. Their objectivesâbe they chaos, stability, preservation, or democracyâare a spiraling array of contradictions. Ask Trump to ponder this fact, and heâll dismiss it as extraneous fluff. But the vacuum of his diffidence will be filled by all these conflicting interests, all the same. How will they respond when Trump decides not to do what they want? No one with any real power in the administration seems to have considered this. That is all very bad, of courseâwhich is really all there is to say about whatâs happening in Iran right now. As Operation Epic Fury continues, the president and his allies will likely begin to concoct justifications for it and will likely start to articulate objectives that will become a set of moving goalposts. Trump may very well declare âvictoryâ in the coming days. But make no mistake: No one in this administration can say why they are doing this or what they want from it. They donât care; just thinking about pesky little problems like strategic objectives, let alone foreign policy, requires too much work. The real point of this is to prove that the United States is strong by killing foreign leaders, military personnel, and yes, schoolchildren, all while making it clear that no one can slow down the murder machineânot public opinion, not the (ostensible) opposition party, not the United Nations, not our (ostensible) allies. Under Trump, the United States does whatever it wants, stops only when it wants to, and walks away from the carnage without looking back. Trump thinks he is in control; itâs not at all clear that he is.
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